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IT Markets: Is It Time for that Office in Casablanca?

Lookint at Relative IT Spends Reveals a Surprising Picture

When you're selling IT technology - or looking to deploy it in hot markets - you no doubt start with the United States.

With over $1 trillion in IT spend per year (according to the World Bank), the amount almost equals the next five countries combined - China, Japan, Germany, the UK, and France.

But maybe you should consider Malaysia instead. Or Mexico. Bangladesh. Or perhaps Morocco. These are just a few of the hotspots that emerge when we look at IT spend in relative, rather than absolute, terms.

I think of it as a pound-for-pound rating for IT spend.

First Look
Clearly, no one is going to abandon the US in favor of smaller markets in nations that are volatile, often scarily so.

I'm really talking about developing markets, which should should grow quickly - and in which first- or second-mover advantage might be everything. The question is, where should we look?

BRIC is the first place many people look when considering developing markets. BRIC stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The term was coined by Jim O'Neill from the London office of Goldman Sachs.

The idea is that these four countries will surpass the current economic leaders by 2050. I don't think so. If you've traveled to any or all of these places, you can see first-hand the enormous problems that still face them.

The Numbers
Of course, all countries have their problems, including the highly developed ones. So let's look at the numbers for a more objective measure.

As stated, the US spends 7.3% of its economy on IT annually. How does that compare with emerging markets?

The BRIC nations come in at 4.9%. Collectively, these nations spend more than $440 billion on IT per year - China accounts for almost 60% of that.

Mr. O'Neill followed up his BRIC theory with a newer designation called the "Next Eleven" or N11 countries. These places devote 5.6% of their economies to IT, led by the dynamo South Korea at 8% (or $66 billion). Other leaders in this group are Mexico and Turkey. Collectively, the N11 nations spend $226 billion annually on IT.

A Second Look
If these places are so exciting, why do they still spend much less on a percentage basis than the US? Why can't they at least match the 7.2% spend of the US?

The answer is, they already are. In fact, they're exceeding it. You just have to look at things relatively.

This is where the pound-for-pound comparison comes in.

Travel in the developing world means encountering what appear to be incredible bargains, even in the current era of a very weak dollar. You can take a taxi across town for less than five bucks; stay at a very nice hotel for sixty; have a great meal for less than ten per person; buy locally made shirts for less than ten, etc.

Yet brand-name products carry no such discount. A pair of Nikes are the same price everywhere. As are Hondas and Hyundais.

As is technology. The price is the same in Istanbul, Kuala Lumpur, and San Francisco when it comes to Apple iPhones and Samsung droids, Dell and Acer laptops (remember those?) - and contracts from Oracle, IBM, HP, Microsoft, Cisco, EMC, and the rest. The same applies to AWS and its competitors.

So, $1000 or $1 million spent in a lower cost, developing country represents a bigger commitment than the same spent in a higher cost developed country. The principle is called purchasing-power parity (PPP), and is measured by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, CIA, and others.

Adjust the Spend in Relative Terms
If we adjust the IT spend for PPP, we then get a entirely new picture, and one that reflects "pound-for-pound" IT expenditures. This picture shows true excitement in many places of the world.

The US is considered the PPP benchmark, so its 7.3% commitment remains the same in this measure.

Adjusted for PPP, the BRIC nations come in at a collective 9.5%, led by India at 11.7%. Collectively, BRIC nations spend $440 billion annually on IT - China accounts for 60% of that.

The N11 nations do even better. The overall number is 10.9%. This group's superstars include Bangladesh at an amazing 23.8%, and Egypt at 18.8%. Mexico and Turkey have the highest IT budgets among developing N11 nations in absolute dollar terms. Collectively, N11 nations budget $226 billion annually.

Even higher dynamism can be found in the major ASEAN (Southeast Asian) nations, which average 11.3% on a PPP basis. Malaysia is the superstar here, at 23.4%. Four other countries exceed the US number - Vietnam (14.0%), Thailand (13.7%), the Philippines (13.2%), and Singapore (9.1%). Collectively, the big ASEAN nations budget $84 billion annually.

The Tau Index Top 12
But the top performing group I've found is my own Tau Index group. I created this index last fall to seek the world's most dynamic IT markets. My final analysis accounts for PPP and income disparity.

Accounting for PPP alone, the Tau Index Top 12 nations show a collective commitment of 17.0% to IT. This is almost 2.5X the US number, 80% above that of the BRIC nations, and around 50% higher than both he N11 and major ASEAN nations.

The Tau Index Top 12 spend an unadjusted 7.9% annually on IT, higher than the US level. This is the only group that exceeds the US commitment as a percentage in absolute terms.

The Tau Index Top 12 includes, coincidentally, some N11 and some ASEAN nations. None of the BRIC make the cut, though. This elite group is as follows: Bangladesh, Malaysia, Morocco, Egypt, Ukraine, Senegal, South Africa, Honduras, Vietnam, Thailand, Bulgaria, and the Philippines.

It's time to consider that regional office in Sofia, Dhaka, Manila...or Casablanca. Of all the markets, in all the towns, in all the world, you walk into that one...

More Stories By Roger Strukhoff

Roger Strukhoff holds a BA from Knox College, Certificate in Technical Communications from UC-Berkeley, and MBA from CSU-Hayward. He won a 2009 "Stevie" American Business Award for producing the best publication in its category. He is a former Publisher at IDG and Guest Lecturer at MIT. He splits most of his time between Silicon Valley and Southeast Asia, but can also be found at www.twitter.com/strukhoff

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