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Moore's Law Will End in 10-15 Years...Says Gordon Moore
The laws of physics will render it obsolete

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Speaking at a conference yesterday, Gordon Moore conceded that there are fundamental limits to Moore's Law - which states that the number of transistors that can be inexpensively placed on an integrated circuit is increasing exponentially, doubling approximately every two years - and that the laws of physics will render it obsolete in about ten to fifteen years' time.

"Any physical quantity that's growing exponentially predicts a disaster," Moore told an interviewer. "It comes to some kind of an end. You can't go beyond the certain major limits."

Moore's original statement was made as long ago as 1965 and the rate has been maintained so far right into 2007.

He's stated before, in 2005 in fact, that the law cannot be sustained indefinitely. Back then he noted:

"In terms of size [of transistor] you can see that we're approaching the size of atoms which is a fundamental barrier, but it'll be two or three generations before we get that far—but that's as far out as we've ever been able to see. We have another 10 to 20 years before we reach a fundamental limit. By then they'll be able to make bigger chips and have transistor budgets in the billions."
But as Wikipedia open-mindedly notes: "Then again, the law has often met obstacles that appeared insurmountable, before soon surmounting them."

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